Thursday, July 16, 2009

Two Bold Predictions: Ricky Rubio

The news about Ricky Rubio and his buy-out beginning to build up again. Wolves GM David Kahn (KAAAAHN!) is headed to Spain to ask DKV Joventut to lower the buy-out price tag (and what kind of jerky Spainard doesn't lower prices when the buyer asks nicely?).

With that in mind, IDYFT Contributor Garwood B. Jones emailed yesterday with a Gentle Reminder (he called the Rubio pick a full 24 hours before the draft started) and a Bold Prediction. Here's Garwood B Jones (please note--no one asked him to call this a Bold Prediction. He decided that all on his own:

I boldly predict that not only will Ricky Rubio play for the Wolves, he will do so this year.

The whole "playing for free" argument is kind of ridiculous. If he plays in Europe he'll be playing for $100,000. If he plays for the Wolves he'll be playing for "free" ($3.6M salary toward the buyout) + USA endorsement money. He may get less $$$ than he would in NY but he'll get more in MN then he will in Europe and he'll be in the NBA which is where he wants to be.

The Wolves are going to give him the keys to the franchise. He's going to get paid here. He's going to be here.

25 - 30 minutes a game is plenty for a rookie PG. Give Jonny Flynn the other 18-20. Draft a 2/3 next year or trade expiring contracts close to the deadline for a reasonable small forward. They'll be under the cap and have a year of understanding how the pieces (Rubio, Love, Jefferson, Flynn, Ellington, Gomes, Brewer) fit together. They'll have the Euro big coming over next year at the 5. I think this team wins 32 games this year and 48 next year.

My bold prediction was written to Garwood in response, and is reproduced here, in full.

That is a bold prediction. The issue (i always thought) is that the buyout can't come directly from the drafting team, only $500,000 of it can, so even if he making good money, he doesn't get the big signing bonus that puts him free and clear right off the bat. And he doesn't get endorsement deals until he is actually here.

I don't dispute the notion that he'd eventually (and quickly) getting paid more here than he is in Spain. But is his Spanish team going to him pay his buyout on a lay-away basis?

I think Team Rubio is kind of lying when they say he'd be happy to play here, and I think Flynn may outperform him, especially in the early years of their contracts, and I think Team Rubio thinks that, too. I guess I'm finding myself rooting, almost, for a Rubio trade, as I'm not sure I buy into the Transformational Player tag that Kahn gave him.

Using your definition of "next year" (which I would I would think of as 2 years down the road) I don't see more than four (and probably just 3) of the players you listed still on the team by the start of "next year".

1 comment:

Miwacar said...

I have already seen rubio in a Gatorade or Adidas commercial. He has such beautiful brown eyes.