Saturday, September 17, 2011

PA, AP, KFAN and Expectations, Part 1

As the NFL season was starting, Adrian Peterson went on local Vikings Radio (KFAN) and talked about his goals for the season.  His stated goal-2500 yards rushing, and 3000 yards total, were outlandish, to a comical degree (consider, if you will--the best single season rusher, Eric Dickerson just barely broke 2100 yards.)  But host Paul Allen didn't call bullshit.  In fact, he found it reasonable.  

Maybe it is because Paul Allen is the "Radio Voice of the Vikings", and is thus contractually obligated to believe crazy-ass shit.  Maybe it is because he is an idiot.  Maybe he just doesn't understand how football works, despite his years watching it (or, as he described it to Chad Greenway this morning, "rewinding the tape").  

Regardless, Paul Allen, before the season began assessed the offensive talent this way:

THE GREAT ADRIAN PETERSON told me last night on "Vikings Live at Winter Park" he is going to run for "2,500 yards" this season, and he meant it. He can do it, too, and given he's the identity of our offense stuff is going to open for other skill-position guys:
PERCY HARVIN will amass 1,200 receiving yards and score 10 touchdowns, which will be a career best. He will register seven via the pass and three by rushing and is a terrific "mixer" for OC BILL MUSGRAVE. I am not prediciting [sic]he'll run from the "Percy Cat" too frequently, but there's gold in them, 'thar hills when 12 finds space, and I have a sneaky suspicion some love will come via handoffs.
BERNARD BERRIAN will run up 900 receiving yards and about seven TD's. His per-catch average will be around 17 yards and he will resume his role as the team's best deep threat. Bernard adjusts to the ball better than any receiver we have and is more engaged to play than he has been the last couple of years. Milk The Great 28, go play-action, and he'll be singled more than he's not.

Point the first--No, Adrian Peterson can not "do it", if "do it" means 2500 rushing yards.  No one has ever done it.  No one has ever come close.  If anyone was going to do it, it would be a great rusher on a good team, not a great rusher on a (at best) mediocre team.

And thus, nor will Adrian Peterson.  To hit 2500 yards, a RB needs to average 155 yards per game, at minimum.  In Week 1, AP rushed for 98 yards.  Now, he needs to average 160 yards per game, the rest of the season.  Last year, the Chicago Bears held him to under 60 yards.

PA should have said, "Yo, AP--that goal of yours is totally insane."  But instead, he and his in-studio buddy declared 2500 yards rushing "reasonable".  "He can do it," said Paul Allen.  Paul Allen should have been gently eased into a strait-jacket and led to Belle Reve, or wherever delusional football "journalists" go when they drink too much Kool-Aid.

As for Percy Harvin--well, he's going to have to bounce a great deal to get PA's predictions--his Week One total of 2 catches for 7 yards will not do it.  Nor will Bernard Berrian's 0 catches for 0 yards do it.  In short, The Vikings hire radio talent to cover the Vikings, and in theory, that job has some Conflict-of-Interest issues.  But if Paul Allen can't do better than these "predictions", the issue isn't Conflict-of-Interest.  It is The Cost of Delusion issues.


Andrew Wice said...

"Our anti-aircraft slingshots will blast the Stukas out of the sky before they can release their bombs. The infantry will kill seven Nazis with every musketball. And our cavalry lances will penetrate the Panzers' armor, causing them to implode."

-- Polish Army, 1939

Muumuuman said...

Perhaps NcNabb will through his first TD pass next week. Was that his goal? 300 yards and a TD by the end of week three?